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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.5x - 13.9x | 13.2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.6x - 8.4x | 8.0x |
Fair Value | €20.35 - €23 | €21.68 |
Upside | -7.6% - 4.4% | -1.6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
ConocoPhillips | COP | NYSE:COP |
The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | NYSE:WMB |
Murphy Oil Corporation | MUR | NYSE:MUR |
Devon Energy Corporation | DVN | NYSE:DVN |
Expand Energy Corporation | EXE | NasdaqGS:EXE |
Coterra Energy Inc. | XCQ | DB:XCQ |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
COP | WMB | MUR | DVN | EXE | XCQ | ||
NYSE:COP | NYSE:WMB | NYSE:MUR | NYSE:DVN | NasdaqGS:EXE | DB:XCQ | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 14.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 87.4% | NM- | 9.6% | |
3Y CAGR | 4.0% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 7.3% | NM- | -4.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -1.8% | -11.5% | -40.9% | -3.9% | -200.9% | -3.3% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 22.5% | 31.6% | 19.7% | 22.6% | -22.1% | 37.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 28.4% | 42.4% | 30.1% | 34.0% | 36.4% | 39.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 26.0% | 31.4% | 19.6% | 27.0% | -11.3% | 26.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 26.1% | 31.0% | 18.9% | 26.8% | -11.5% | 28.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.04x | 9.20x | 1.81x | 1.76x | 5.07x | 4.13x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 17.9x | 3.4x | 3.6x | 27.1x | 6.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 7.8x | 29.6x | 9.6x | 6.6x | -43.9x | 14.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -43.9x | 7.8x | 29.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.0x | 12.4x | 30.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 13.2x | 13.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 1,660 | 1,660 | 1,660 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 20,812 | 21,908 | 23,003 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,344) | (4,344) | (4,344) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 16,468 | 17,564 | 18,659 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 763.3 | 763.3 | 763.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 21.58 | 23.01 | 24.45 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 18.43 | 19.66 | 20.88 | 22.04 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -16.3% | -10.8% | -5.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | COP | WMB | MUR | DVN | EXE | XCQ | |
Enterprise Value | 120,373 | 101,944 | 5,239 | 28,032 | 32,964 | 24,031 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,235 | 100 | 393 | 1,198 | 349 | 186 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 10,008 | 4,300 | 0 | 713 | 311 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (23,784) | (27,411) | (2,202) | (9,007) | (5,314) | (4,522) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (2,378) | (157) | (228) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (8) | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 113,832 | 76,520 | 3,272 | 20,708 | 28,310 | 19,687 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,262.4 | 1,221.0 | 142.7 | 642.1 | 238.0 | 763.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 90.17 | 62.67 | 22.93 | 32.25 | 118.96 | 25.79 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 90.17 | 62.67 | 22.93 | 32.25 | 118.96 | 22.04 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 |