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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 12.1x - 13.4x | 12.7x |
Fair Value | €9.74 - €11.60 | €10.65 |
Upside | -1.7% - 17.1% | 7.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 1,036 | 1,084 | 1,144 | 1,205 | 1,265 | 1,314 |
% Growth | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
EBITDA | 748 | 988 | 1,043 | 1,101 | 1,156 | 1,201 |
% of Revenue | 72.2% | 91.1% | 91.2% | 91.4% | 91.4% | 91.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 988 | 1,043 | 1,101 | 1,156 | 1,201 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (393) | (386) | (374) | (367) | (387) | |
EBIT | 595 | 657 | 727 | 789 | 814 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (119) | (131) | (145) | (158) | (163) | |
NOPAT | 449 | 476 | 526 | 582 | 631 | 651 |
Capital Expenditures | (294) | (300) | (273) | (240) | (246) | (242) |
NWC Investment | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
(+) D&A | 188 | 393 | 386 | 374 | 367 | 387 |
Free Cash Flow | 345 | 571 | 641 | 718 | 754 | 798 |
% Growth | 65% | 12% | 12% | 5% | 6% |