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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.2x - 1.3x | 1.2x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | €13.02 - €19.39 | €16.20 |
| Upside | 4.1% - 55.0% | 29.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Air France-KLM SA | 0LN7 | LSE:0LN7 |
| Finnair Oyj | 0EG8 | LSE:0EG8 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | 0RYA | LSE:0RYA |
| Wizz Air Holdings Plc | WI2 | DB:WI2 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 0LN7 | 0EG8 | IAG | 0H4A | 0RYA | WI2 | |||
| LSE:0LN7 | LSE:0EG8 | LSE:IAG | LSE:0H4A | LSE:0RYA | DB:WI2 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.0% | -0.2% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 10.4% | 13.8% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 30.0% | 54.0% | 56.0% | 30.7% | 42.7% | 46.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.4% | 2.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -8.0% | -26.2% | -15.0% | -7.7% | -0.8% | -16.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 15.3% | 4.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.0% | 3.8% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.5% | 2.4% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.45x | 0.44x | 0.80x | 0.33x | 1.71x | 1.15x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.3x | 18.4x | 5.6x | 8.8x | 15.3x | 38.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.08x | 0.19x | 0.57x | 0.22x | 1.80x | 0.25x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.45x | 1.71x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.15x | 2.01x | 5.56x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.17x | 1.23x | 1.29x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 5,268 | 5,268 | 5,268 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,167 | 6,492 | 6,816 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,905) | (4,905) | (4,905) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,263 | 1,587 | 1,912 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 103.4 | 103.4 | 103.4 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 12.21 | 15.35 | 18.49 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.21 | 15.35 | 18.49 | 12.51 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.4% | 22.7% | 47.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0LN7 | 0EG8 | IAG | 0H4A | 0RYA | WI2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,468 | 1,358 | 26,290 | 12,799 | 23,392 | 6,198 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,582 | 955 | 9,799 | 8,837 | 3,963 | 1,658 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 212 | 0 | 0 | 1,156 | 0 | 9 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,043) | (1,741) | (17,345) | (14,099) | (2,683) | (6,621) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,605) | 0 | 0 | (49) | 0 | 50 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,614 | 572 | 18,744 | 8,644 | 24,672 | 1,294 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 262.7 | 204.8 | 4,664.7 | 1,198.3 | 1,061.4 | 103.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.95 | 2.79 | 4.02 | 7.21 | 23.24 | 12.51 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.95 | 2.79 | 3.47 | 7.21 | 20.05 | 12.51 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | GBP | EUR | GBP | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |