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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 39.3x - 43.4x | 41.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.9x - 11.0x | 10.4x |
| Fair Value | €6.74 - €12.50 | €9.62 |
| Upside | -52.5% - -11.8% | -32.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Air France-KLM SA | 0LN7 | LSE:0LN7 |
| Finnair Oyj | 0EG8 | LSE:0EG8 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | 0RYA | LSE:0RYA |
| Wizz Air Holdings Plc | WI2 | DB:WI2 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0LN7 | 0EG8 | IAG | 0H4A | 0RYA | WI2 | ||
| LSE:0LN7 | LSE:0EG8 | LSE:IAG | LSE:0H4A | LSE:0RYA | DB:WI2 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.0% | -6.7% | 6.5% | -2.8% | 6.7% | -16.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.2% | -69.5% | 26.2% | 44.2% | 22.8% | -18.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -8.0% | -25.8% | -15.0% | -7.7% | -0.6% | -16.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 15.3% | 4.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.0% | 3.8% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.5% | 1.6% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 14.4% | 2.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.46x | 0.46x | 0.83x | 0.35x | 1.73x | 1.16x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 3.8x | 4.8x | 3.9x | 7.7x | 12.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | 29.0x | 5.8x | 9.2x | 12.0x | 44.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.8x | 9.2x | 29.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -834.4x | -14.1x | 76.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 39.3x | 41.3x | 43.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 142 | 142 | 142 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,574 | 5,867 | 6,161 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,963) | (4,963) | (4,963) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 611 | 904 | 1,197 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 103.4 | 103.4 | 103.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.91 | 8.74 | 11.58 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.91 | 8.74 | 11.58 | 14.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -58.3% | -38.3% | -18.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0LN7 | 0EG8 | IAG | 0H4A | 0RYA | WI2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,791 | 1,416 | 27,360 | 13,341 | 22,945 | 6,430 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,582 | 804 | 9,799 | 8,837 | 4,348 | 1,658 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 212 | 0 | 0 | 1,156 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,043) | (1,620) | (17,345) | (14,099) | (2,324) | (6,621) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,605) | 0 | 0 | (49) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,937 | 600 | 19,814 | 9,186 | 24,969 | 1,466 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 262.7 | 204.8 | 4,649.7 | 1,198.3 | 1,060.7 | 103.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 11.18 | 2.93 | 4.26 | 7.67 | 23.54 | 14.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.18 | 2.93 | 3.69 | 7.67 | 20.37 | 14.18 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | GBP | EUR | GBP | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
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