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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.3% - 10.3% | 10.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.8x - 7.8x | 6.8x |
Fair Value | €66.49 - €104.87 | €84.99 |
Upside | -27.9% - 13.7% | -7.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 16,607 | 15,600 | 15,927 | 16,716 | 17,579 | 18,269 | 18,634 | 19,007 | 19,387 | 19,775 | 20,170 |
% Growth | -14.6% | -6.1% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,217 | 1,379 | 1,533 | 1,637 | 1,943 | 2,048 | 2,089 | 2,131 | 2,173 | 2,217 | 2,261 |
% of Revenue | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,379 | 1,533 | 1,637 | 1,943 | 2,048 | 2,089 | 2,131 | 2,173 | 2,217 | 2,261 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (352) | (385) | (372) | (439) | (448) | (457) | (466) | (475) | (485) | (495) | |
EBIT | 1,027 | 1,148 | 1,265 | 1,504 | 1,600 | 1,632 | 1,665 | 1,698 | 1,732 | 1,767 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (216) | (241) | (266) | (316) | (336) | (343) | (350) | (357) | (364) | (371) | |
NOPAT | 702 | 812 | 907 | 1,000 | 1,188 | 1,264 | 1,289 | 1,315 | 1,341 | 1,368 | 1,396 |
Capital Expenditures | (451) | (450) | (469) | (529) | (510) | (530) | (523) | (521) | (525) | (523) | (523) |
NWC Investment | (121) | (43) | 14 | 33 | 37 | 29 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
(+) D&A | 328 | 352 | 385 | 372 | 439 | 448 | 457 | 466 | 475 | 485 | 495 |
Free Cash Flow | 458 | 671 | 838 | 876 | 1,154 | 1,211 | 1,239 | 1,276 | 1,308 | 1,347 | 1,384 |
% Growth | 46% | 25% | 5% | 32% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |