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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 15.8% - 14.8% | 15.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 14.4x - 16.4x | 15.4x |
Fair Value | €36.98 - €52.31 | €44.40 |
Upside | -24.5% - 6.8% | -9.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 3,864 | 3,953 | 4,135 | 4,214 | 4,298 | 4,384 | 4,472 | 4,562 | 4,653 | 4,746 | 4,841 |
% Growth | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 867 | 961 | 1,018 | 1,080 | 1,101 | 1,123 | 1,146 | 1,169 | 1,192 | 1,216 | 1,240 |
% of Revenue | 22.4% | 24.3% | 24.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 961 | 1,018 | 1,080 | 1,101 | 1,123 | 1,146 | 1,169 | 1,192 | 1,216 | 1,240 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (128) | (158) | (186) | (189) | (193) | (197) | (201) | (205) | (209) | (213) | |
EBIT | 833 | 859 | 894 | 912 | 930 | 949 | 967 | 987 | 1,007 | 1,027 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (183) | (189) | (197) | (201) | (205) | (209) | (213) | (217) | (221) | (226) | |
NOPAT | 587 | 650 | 670 | 697 | 711 | 725 | 740 | 755 | 770 | 785 | 801 |
Capital Expenditures | (81) | (81) | (84) | (68) | (78) | (79) | (75) | (76) | (77) | (76) | (76) |
NWC Investment | (113) | (88) | (180) | (78) | (83) | (85) | (87) | (88) | (90) | (92) | (94) |
(+) D&A | 115 | 128 | 158 | 186 | 189 | 193 | 197 | 201 | 205 | 209 | 213 |
Free Cash Flow | 508 | 609 | 564 | 737 | 740 | 754 | 775 | 791 | 808 | 826 | 844 |
% Growth | 20% | -7% | 31% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |