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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.0x - 10.0x | 9.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.4x - 7.1x | 6.8x |
| Fair Value | €45.23 - €50.65 | €47.94 |
| Upside | 7.4% - 20.3% | 13.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| OMV Aktiengesellschaft | OMV | DB:OMV |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | DB:WMB |
| HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. | ELPE | ATSE:ELPE |
| Neste Oyj | NESTE | HLSE:NESTE |
| Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP | ENXTLS:GALP |
| Koninklijke Vopak N.V. | VPK5 | DB:VPK5 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| OMV | WMB | ELPE | NESTE | GALP | VPK5 | ||
| DB:OMV | DB:WMB | ATSE:ELPE | HLSE:NESTE | ENXTLS:GALP | DB:VPK5 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | -23.2% | 7.9% | 1.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.5% | 7.7% | 3.5% | -34.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -5.4% | 3.6% | -64.7% | -68.6% | -27.8% | -2.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.9% | 51.1% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 47.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.3% | 63.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 48.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 21.7% | 52.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 14.8% | 48.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.8% | 53.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 13.1% | 47.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.51x | 8.52x | 0.44x | 0.74x | 0.73x | 4.18x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.6x | 16.1x | 12.4x | 26.3x | 5.6x | 8.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.7x | 26.1x | 40.7x | -226.7x | 7.2x | 14.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.6x | 12.4x | 26.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 11.6x | 14.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 9.5x | 10.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 630 | 630 | 630 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,683 | 5,982 | 6,281 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (718) | (718) | (718) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,965 | 5,264 | 5,563 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 115.3 | 115.3 | 115.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 43.07 | 45.67 | 48.26 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 43.07 | 45.67 | 48.26 | 42.10 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 2.3% | 8.5% | 14.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | OMV | WMB | ELPE | NESTE | GALP | VPK5 | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,205 | 97,064 | 5,036 | 15,327 | 14,721 | 5,571 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 6,391 | 903 | 766 | 981 | 2,229 | 100 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 6,355 | 4,209 | 191 | 87 | 97 | 2,142 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,542) | (28,572) | (3,362) | (5,344) | (4,947) | (2,835) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,406) | (2,367) | (53) | 0 | (775) | (125) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 15,003 | 71,202 | 2,578 | 11,051 | 11,325 | 4,853 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 327.0 | 1,221.2 | 305.6 | 768.2 | 695.4 | 115.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 45.88 | 58.31 | 8.44 | 14.39 | 16.29 | 42.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 45.88 | 49.91 | 8.44 | 14.39 | 16.29 | 42.10 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |