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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 8.0x | 7.0x |
| Fair Value | €1.54 - €1.92 | €1.73 |
| Upside | -9.9% - 12.5% | 1.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 13,759 | 14,615 | 14,026 | 15,047 | 19,920 | 21,551 |
| % Growth | 0.1% | 6.2% | -4.0% | 7.3% | 32.4% | 8.2% |
| EBITDA | 3,401 | 4,592 | 4,060 | 4,332 | 3,584 | 3,960 |
| % of Revenue | 24.7% | 31.4% | 28.9% | 28.8% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 4,592 | 4,060 | 4,332 | 3,584 | 3,960 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,222) | (836) | (845) | (657) | (678) | |
| EBIT | 3,369 | 3,225 | 3,487 | 2,927 | 3,282 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (674) | (645) | (697) | (585) | (656) | |
| NOPAT | 2,255 | 2,696 | 2,580 | 2,789 | 2,342 | 2,625 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,715) | (1,646) | (1,153) | (1,646) | (2,179) | (2,358) |
| NWC Investment | (3) | (123) | 85 | (147) | (701) | (235) |
| (+) D&A | 582 | 1,222 | 836 | 845 | 657 | 678 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,119 | 2,149 | 2,347 | 1,841 | 118 | 711 |
| % Growth | 92% | 9% | -22% | -94% | 504% | |