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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x - 7.3x | 6.3x |
| Fair Value | €19.98 - €24.40 | €22.10 |
| Upside | 19.6% - 46.1% | 32.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 922,516 | 922,400 | 932,400 | 942,900 | 953,300 | 963,200 | 963,200 | 963,200 | 963,200 | 963,200 | 963,200 |
| % Growth | -3.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 90,262 | 92,800 | 94,800 | 95,868 | 96,925 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 |
| % of Revenue | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 92,800 | 94,800 | 95,868 | 96,925 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | 97,932 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (55,800) | (55,800) | (54,868) | (53,925) | (53,432) | (53,432) | (53,432) | (53,432) | (53,432) | (53,432) | |
| EBIT | 37,000 | 39,000 | 41,000 | 43,000 | 44,500 | 44,500 | 44,500 | 44,500 | 44,500 | 44,500 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (9,250) | (9,750) | (10,250) | (10,750) | (11,125) | (11,125) | (11,125) | (11,125) | (11,125) | (11,125) | |
| NOPAT | 25,654 | 27,750 | 29,250 | 30,750 | 32,250 | 33,375 | 33,375 | 33,375 | 33,375 | 33,375 | 33,375 |
| Capital Expenditures | (33,621) | (50,000) | (50,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) | (52,000) |
| NWC Investment | 8,627 | 36 | (3,065) | (3,218) | (3,187) | (3,034) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 56,057 | 55,800 | 55,800 | 54,868 | 53,925 | 53,432 | 53,432 | 53,432 | 53,432 | 53,432 | 53,432 |
| Free Cash Flow | 56,716 | 33,586 | 31,985 | 30,399 | 30,988 | 31,772 | 34,807 | 34,807 | 34,807 | 34,807 | 34,807 |
| % Growth | -41% | -5% | -5% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |