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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
| Fair Value | €6.09 - €7.04 | €6.56 |
| Upside | 1.5% - 17.5% | 9.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
| Revenue | 2,563,280 | 2,706,500 | 2,821,300 | 2,930,200 | 3,080,000 | 3,185,600 |
| % Growth | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| EBITDA | 256,548 | 299,000 | 328,000 | 333,029 | 348,000 | 370,000 |
| % of Revenue | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| EBITDA | 299,000 | 328,000 | 333,029 | 348,000 | 370,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (141,000) | (150,000) | (142,226) | (140,000) | (168,000) | |
| EBIT | 158,000 | 178,000 | 190,802 | 208,000 | 202,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (47,400) | (53,400) | (57,241) | (62,400) | (60,600) | |
| NOPAT | 89,217 | 110,600 | 124,600 | 133,562 | 145,600 | 141,400 |
| Capital Expenditures | (179,248) | (160,000) | (172,000) | (172,500) | (162,000) | (145,000) |
| NWC Investment | (32,428) | (47,063) | (37,724) | (35,785) | (49,225) | (34,701) |
| (+) D&A | 129,095 | 141,000 | 150,000 | 142,226 | 140,000 | 168,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,636 | 44,537 | 64,876 | 67,503 | 74,375 | 129,699 |
| % Growth | 571% | 46% | 4% | 10% | 74% | |