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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.3% - 3.3% | 2.8% |
Fair Value | €5.52 - €7.95 | €6.52 |
Upside | -3.8% - 38.6% | 13.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
Revenue | 2,563,280 | 2,687,500 | 2,803,800 | 2,915,675 | 3,080,000 | 3,185,600 | 3,249,312 | 3,314,298 | 3,380,584 | 3,448,196 | 3,517,160 | |
% Growth | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
EBITDA | 269,908 | 288,000 | 315,300 | 333,750 | 348,000 | 370,000 | 377,400 | 384,948 | 392,647 | 400,500 | 408,510 | |
% of Revenue | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
(JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 288,000 | 315,300 | 333,750 | 348,000 | 370,000 | 377,400 | 384,948 | 392,647 | 400,500 | 408,510 | 408,510 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (135,741) | (140,300) | (137,150) | (117,000) | (168,000) | (171,360) | (174,787) | (178,283) | (181,849) | (185,486) | (140,784) | |
EBIT | 152,259 | 175,000 | 196,600 | 231,000 | 202,000 | 206,040 | 210,161 | 214,364 | 218,651 | 223,024 | 267,725 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (45,678) | (52,500) | (58,980) | (69,300) | (60,600) | (61,812) | (63,048) | (64,309) | (65,595) | (66,907) | (80,318) | |
NOPAT | 98,569 | 106,581 | 122,500 | 137,620 | 161,700 | 141,400 | 144,228 | 147,113 | 150,055 | 153,056 | 156,117 | 187,408 |
Capital Expenditures | (179,248) | (170,000) | (163,000) | (173,500) | (161,500) | (144,000) | (146,880) | (149,818) | (146,899) | (147,866) | (148,194) | (148,194) |
NWC Investment | (32,428) | (40,819) | (38,217) | (36,763) | (53,998) | (34,701) | (20,936) | (21,355) | (21,782) | (22,218) | (22,662) | (31,783) |
(+) D&A | 129,095 | 135,741 | 140,300 | 137,150 | 117,000 | 168,000 | 171,360 | 174,787 | 178,283 | 181,849 | 185,486 | 140,784 |
Free Cash Flow | 15,988 | 31,503 | 61,583 | 64,507 | 63,202 | 130,699 | 147,772 | 150,727 | 159,657 | 164,821 | 170,747 | 148,215 |
% Growth | 97% | 95% | 5% | -2% | 107% | 13% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | -13% |