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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 7.0x | 6.0x |
| Fair Value | €5.35 - €7.75 | €6.52 |
| Upside | -10.1% - 30.3% | 9.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
| Revenue | 2,563,280 | 2,500,000 | 2,708,900 | 2,822,051 | 2,953,700 | 3,121,450 |
| % Growth | 4.0% | -2.5% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| EBITDA | 256,548 | 339,400 | 305,000 | 331,000 | 351,200 | 382,000 |
| % of Revenue | 10.0% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 12.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| EBITDA | 339,400 | 305,000 | 331,000 | 351,200 | 382,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (166,400) | (145,000) | (153,000) | (158,600) | (166,500) | |
| EBIT | 173,000 | 160,000 | 178,000 | 192,600 | 215,500 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (55,360) | (51,200) | (56,960) | (61,632) | (68,960) | |
| NOPAT | 86,668 | 117,640 | 108,800 | 121,040 | 130,968 | 146,540 |
| Capital Expenditures | (179,248) | (170,000) | (160,000) | (172,000) | (172,500) | (162,000) |
| NWC Investment | (32,428) | 20,794 | (68,646) | (37,182) | (43,260) | (55,123) |
| (+) D&A | 129,095 | 166,400 | 145,000 | 153,000 | 158,600 | 166,500 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,087 | 134,834 | 25,154 | 64,858 | 73,808 | 95,917 |
| % Growth | 3199% | -81% | 158% | 14% | 30% | |