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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.8% - 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Fair Value | €13.94 - €19.30 | €16.14 |
| Upside | -14.5% - 18.4% | -1.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 45,095,325 | 30,410,000 | 26,229,789 | 25,757,653 | 51,068,000 | 51,948,000 | 51,948,000 | 51,948,000 | 51,948,000 | 51,948,000 | 51,948,000 | |
| % Growth | 21.4% | -32.6% | -13.7% | -1.8% | 98.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 7,025,597 | 3,442,000 | 6,846,070 | 7,015,092 | 6,698,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | |
| % of Revenue | 15.6% | 11.3% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 3,442,000 | 6,846,070 | 7,015,092 | 6,698,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | 6,793,900 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (892,000) | (5,230,112) | (5,493,561) | (1,563,000) | (1,622,000) | (1,622,000) | (1,622,000) | (1,622,000) | (1,622,000) | (1,622,000) | (2,380,611) | |
| EBIT | 2,550,000 | 1,615,958 | 1,521,531 | 5,135,900 | 5,171,900 | 5,171,900 | 5,171,900 | 5,171,900 | 5,171,900 | 5,171,900 | 4,413,289 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (688,500) | (436,309) | (410,813) | (1,386,693) | (1,396,413) | (1,396,413) | (1,396,413) | (1,396,413) | (1,396,413) | (1,396,413) | (1,191,588) | |
| NOPAT | 3,908,929 | 1,861,500 | 1,179,649 | 1,110,718 | 3,749,207 | 3,775,487 | 3,775,487 | 3,775,487 | 3,775,487 | 3,775,487 | 3,775,487 | 3,221,701 |
| Capital Expenditures | (4,714,107) | (1,550,000) | (2,215,000) | (2,315,000) | (2,360,000) | (2,842,720) | (2,505,907) | (2,505,907) | (2,505,907) | (2,505,907) | (2,505,907) | (2,505,907) |
| NWC Investment | (1,074,451) | 1,986,981 | 565,599 | 63,882 | (3,424,587) | (119,067) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (298,722) |
| (+) D&A | 1,670,900 | 892,000 | 5,230,112 | 5,493,561 | 1,563,000 | 1,622,000 | 1,622,000 | 1,622,000 | 1,622,000 | 1,622,000 | 1,622,000 | 2,380,611 |
| Free Cash Flow | (208,729) | 3,190,481 | 4,760,360 | 4,353,160 | (472,380) | 2,435,700 | 2,891,581 | 2,891,581 | 2,891,581 | 2,891,581 | 2,891,581 | 2,797,683 |
| % Growth | NM | 49% | -9% | NM | NM | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -3% | |