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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 20.6x - 22.6x | 21.6x |
Fair Value | €397.89 - €464.29 | €430.03 |
Upside | -2.0% - 14.4% | 5.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 42,879 | 43,817 | 45,844 | 48,619 | 50,975 | 53,446 | 54,515 | 55,605 | 56,717 | 57,852 | 59,009 |
% Growth | 0.1% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 10,842 | 10,928 | 11,795 | 12,690 | 14,269 | 15,368 | 15,675 | 15,988 | 16,308 | 16,634 | 16,967 |
% of Revenue | 25.3% | 24.9% | 25.7% | 26.1% | 28.0% | 28.8% | 28.8% | 28.8% | 28.8% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 10,928 | 11,795 | 12,690 | 14,269 | 15,368 | 15,675 | 15,988 | 16,308 | 16,634 | 16,967 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,050) | (1,218) | (1,282) | (1,918) | (2,142) | (2,184) | (2,228) | (2,273) | (2,318) | (2,364) | |
EBIT | 9,878 | 10,577 | 11,408 | 12,351 | 13,226 | 13,491 | 13,760 | 14,036 | 14,316 | 14,603 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (889) | (952) | (1,027) | (1,112) | (1,190) | (1,214) | (1,238) | (1,263) | (1,288) | (1,314) | |
NOPAT | 7,038 | 8,989 | 9,625 | 10,381 | 11,239 | 12,036 | 12,276 | 12,522 | 12,772 | 13,028 | 13,288 |
Capital Expenditures | (1,400) | (1,550) | (1,655) | (1,800) | (1,785) | (1,877) | (1,821) | (1,828) | (1,842) | (1,830) | (1,833) |
NWC Investment | (3) | (148) | (321) | (439) | (373) | (391) | (169) | (173) | (176) | (180) | (183) |
(+) D&A | 3,108 | 1,050 | 1,218 | 1,282 | 1,918 | 2,142 | 2,184 | 2,228 | 2,273 | 2,318 | 2,364 |
Free Cash Flow | 8,742 | 8,340 | 8,868 | 9,424 | 11,000 | 11,909 | 12,471 | 12,750 | 13,027 | 13,336 | 13,637 |
% Growth | -5% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |