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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.5x - 7.5x | 6.5x |
Fair Value | €208.60 - €253.42 | €230.22 |
Upside | 32.0% - 60.4% | 45.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Aug-24 | Aug-25 | Aug-26 | Aug-27 | Aug-28 | Aug-29 | Aug-30 | Aug-31 | Aug-32 | Aug-33 | Aug-34 |
Revenue | 3,926 | 3,730 | 3,929 | 4,043 | 4,236 | 4,366 | 4,453 | 4,542 | 4,633 | 4,725 | 4,820 |
% Growth | 12.8% | -5.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 529 | 444 | 493 | 516 | 526 | 562 | 573 | 584 | 596 | 608 | 620 |
% of Revenue | 13.5% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Aug-25 | Aug-26 | Aug-27 | Aug-28 | Aug-29 | Aug-30 | Aug-31 | Aug-32 | Aug-33 | Aug-34 | |
EBITDA | 444 | 493 | 516 | 526 | 562 | 573 | 584 | 596 | 608 | 620 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (77) | (75) | (80) | (96) | (119) | (121) | (124) | (126) | (129) | (131) | |
EBIT | 368 | 418 | 436 | 430 | 443 | 451 | 460 | 470 | 479 | 489 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (85) | (96) | (100) | (99) | (102) | (104) | (106) | (108) | (110) | (112) | |
NOPAT | 385 | 283 | 322 | 335 | 331 | 341 | 348 | 354 | 362 | 369 | 376 |
Capital Expenditures | (58) | (50) | (53) | (58) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) |
NWC Investment | (115) | 51 | (51) | (30) | (50) | (33) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (24) |
(+) D&A | 28 | 77 | 75 | 80 | 96 | 119 | 121 | 124 | 126 | 129 | 131 |
Free Cash Flow | 240 | 360 | 293 | 329 | 322 | 370 | 390 | 399 | 408 | 417 | 427 |
% Growth | 50% | -19% | 12% | -2% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |