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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Fair Value | €243.61 - €257.81 | €250.71 |
| Upside | 2.4% - 8.3% | 5.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| FedEx Corporation | FDX | XTRA:FDX |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | 5CI | DB:5CI |
| Foodlink A.E. | FOODL | ATSE:FOODL |
| Müller - Die lila Logistik SE | MLL | XTRA:MLL |
| bpost NV/SA | 13B | DB:13B |
| Logwin AG | TGHN | DB:TGHN |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| FDX | 5CI | FOODL | MLL | 13B | TGHN | |||
| XTRA:FDX | DB:5CI | ATSE:FOODL | XTRA:MLL | DB:13B | DB:TGHN | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 5.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 1.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 23.3% | 0.3% | -8.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.3% | 4.0% | 11.7% | -2.5% | 1.7% | 14.7% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 3.2% | 7.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.94x | 0.17x | 0.51x | 0.62x | 0.48x | 0.24x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.3x | 6.6x | 21.9x | 17.1x | 11.5x | 4.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.57x | 0.28x | 0.17x | 0.15x | 0.06x | 0.46x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.17x | 0.51x | 0.94x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.24x | 0.32x | 0.44x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.28x | 0.29x | 0.31x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 1,442 | 1,442 | 1,442 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 402 | 423 | 445 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 313 | 313 | 313 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 715 | 736 | 758 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 248.41 | 255.76 | 263.12 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 248.41 | 255.76 | 263.12 | 238.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FDX | 5CI | FOODL | MLL | 13B | TGHN | |
| Enterprise Value | 81,754 | 2,157 | 45 | 157 | 2,069 | 372 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,207 | 1,611 | 2 | 16 | 747 | 373 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 447 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,031) | (72) | (33) | (135) | (2,548) | (60) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 50,377 | 3,696 | 15 | 38 | 268 | 685 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 239.6 | 132.0 | 33.0 | 8.0 | 200.0 | 2.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 210.26 | 28.00 | 0.46 | 4.80 | 1.34 | 238.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 191.88 | 28.00 | 0.46 | 4.80 | 1.34 | 238.00 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |