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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5.4x - 6.0x | 5.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.1x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
| Fair Value | €257.14 - €273.95 | €265.55 |
| Upside | 5.4% - 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| FedEx Corporation | FDX | XTRA:FDX |
| Nurminen Logistics Oyj | 8I4 | DB:8I4 |
| InPost S.A. | 669 | DB:669 |
| bpost NV/SA | 13B | DB:13B |
| Foodlink A.E. | FOODL | ATSE:FOODL |
| Logwin AG | TGHN | DB:TGHN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| FDX | 8I4 | 669 | 13B | FOODL | TGHN | ||
| XTRA:FDX | DB:8I4 | DB:669 | DB:13B | ATSE:FOODL | DB:TGHN | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 19.8% | NM- | 72.1% | -5.3% | NM- | 11.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 5.2% | 21.1% | 33.4% | -17.4% | NM- | -6.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.1% | -14.1% | 20.1% | 50.6% | 23.0% | 0.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.2% | 9.1% | 17.9% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 5.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 7.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.7% | 16.5% | 17.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.7% | 16.9% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.98x | 1.10x | 3.16x | 0.50x | 0.60x | 0.29x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 5.3x | 14.1x | 4.9x | 13.7x | 4.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.8x | 6.5x | 18.1x | 14.6x | 20.5x | 5.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.5x | 14.6x | 20.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.6x | 5.3x | 8.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.4x | 5.7x | 6.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 84 | 84 | 84 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 455 | 479 | 503 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 280 | 280 | 280 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 736 | 760 | 784 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 255.50 | 263.82 | 272.14 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 255.50 | 263.82 | 272.14 | 244.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FDX | 8I4 | 669 | 13B | FOODL | TGHN | |
| Enterprise Value | 84,397 | 116 | 35,020 | 2,291 | 56 | 422 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,572 | 16 | 473 | 1,247 | 6 | 334 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 506 | 0 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,416) | (43) | (7,722) | (3,044) | (36) | (53) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (7) | 0 | (1) | 0 | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 53,059 | 82 | 27,857 | 492 | 26 | 703 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 235.9 | 80.7 | 497.7 | 200.0 | 32.8 | 2.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 224.92 | 1.02 | 55.97 | 2.46 | 0.80 | 244.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.17 | 1.00 | 4.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 192.06 | 1.02 | 13.17 | 2.46 | 0.80 | 244.00 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.17 | 1.00 | 4.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |