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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.0x - 2.2x | 2.1x |
| Fair Value | €3.31 - €3.50 | €3.41 |
| Upside | 44.0% - 52.4% | 48.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 1,370 | 1,263 | 1,281 | 1,344 | 1,460 | 1,511 | 1,541 | 1,572 | 1,604 | 1,636 | 1,668 |
| % Growth | -7.1% | -7.8% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 223 | 277 | 284 | 312 | 369 | 382 | 390 | 397 | 405 | 413 | 422 |
| % of Revenue | 16.3% | 21.9% | 22.2% | 23.2% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 277 | 284 | 312 | 369 | 382 | 390 | 397 | 405 | 413 | 422 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (23) | (11) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| EBIT | 253 | 273 | 308 | 369 | 400 | 386 | 394 | 402 | 410 | 418 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (35) | (38) | (43) | (52) | (56) | (54) | (55) | (56) | (57) | (58) | |
| NOPAT | 87 | 218 | 234 | 265 | 317 | 344 | 332 | 339 | 345 | 352 | 359 |
| Capital Expenditures | (7) | (66) | (70) | (74) | (80) | (83) | (79) | (81) | (81) | (80) | (81) |
| NWC Investment | 220 | 227 | (39) | (132) | (245) | (108) | (64) | (65) | (66) | (68) | (69) |
| (+) D&A | 122 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Free Cash Flow | 421 | 402 | 137 | 62 | (5) | 157 | 193 | 197 | 202 | 208 | 214 |
| % Growth | -66% | -55% | NM | NM | 23% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ||