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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8.2x - 9.1x | 8.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.6x - 8.4x | 8.0x |
| Fair Value | €66.75 - €77.82 | €72.29 |
| Upside | -29.7% - -18.1% | -23.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL | NasdaqGS:AAL |
| Mesa Air Group, Inc. | MESA | NasdaqCM:MESA |
| Allegiant Travel Company | ALGT | NasdaqGS:ALGT |
| Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. | SNCY | NasdaqGS:SNCY |
| Alaska Air Group, Inc. | ALK | NYSE:ALK |
| SkyWest, Inc. | SY2 | DB:SY2 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AAL | MESA | ALGT | SNCY | ALK | SY2 | ||
| NasdaqGS:AAL | NasdaqCM:MESA | NasdaqGS:ALGT | NasdaqGS:SNCY | NYSE:ALK | DB:SY2 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.8% | -42.0% | -23.5% | 4.5% | -3.7% | -1.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 9.1% | 38.9% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.0% | 111.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 94.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -11.9% | -4.7% | 2.5% | 5.2% | -6.1% | 2.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.7% | -7.5% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.2% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 13.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.3% | 0.8% | 4.9% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 15.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.66x | 0.30x | 0.80x | 0.91x | 0.76x | 1.65x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 3.8x | 6.8x | 4.7x | 7.0x | 6.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 37.2x | 16.4x | 8.8x | 12.9x | 10.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.8x | 12.9x | 37.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -56.9x | 13.8x | 48.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.2x | 8.6x | 9.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 581 | 581 | 581 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,757 | 5,008 | 5,258 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,805) | (1,805) | (1,805) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,953 | 3,203 | 3,453 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 40.4 | 40.4 | 40.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 73.12 | 79.32 | 85.52 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 62.80 | 68.13 | 73.46 | 95.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -33.9% | -28.3% | -22.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AAL | MESA | ALGT | SNCY | ALK | SY2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 35,772 | 129 | 2,049 | 996 | 10,277 | 6,271 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,573 | 54 | 843 | 138 | 2,124 | 727 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 523 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 45 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,201) | (139) | (2,034) | (562) | (6,373) | (2,576) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,667 | 45 | 868 | 572 | 6,028 | 4,466 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 659.8 | 41.3 | 17.7 | 53.3 | 115.3 | 40.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 11.62 | 1.08 | 48.94 | 10.72 | 52.28 | 110.61 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.62 | 1.08 | 48.94 | 10.72 | 52.28 | 95.00 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |