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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 7.7x | 6.7x |
Fair Value | €52.15 - €74.83 | €63.27 |
Upside | -8.5% - 31.3% | 11.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(CHF in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 11,036 | 15,168 | 15,118 | 15,100 | 15,154 | 15,135 |
% Growth | -0.3% | 37.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
EBITDA | 3,611 | 6,638 | 6,732 | 6,863 | 7,003 | 7,039 |
% of Revenue | 32.7% | 43.8% | 44.5% | 45.5% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(CHF in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 6,638 | 6,732 | 6,863 | 7,003 | 7,039 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (4,628) | (4,622) | (4,555) | (4,413) | (4,321) | |
EBIT | 2,010 | 2,110 | 2,308 | 2,590 | 2,718 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (342) | (359) | (392) | (440) | (462) | |
NOPAT | 1,701 | 1,669 | 1,751 | 1,916 | 2,150 | 2,256 |
Capital Expenditures | (2,288) | (3,143) | (3,144) | (3,013) | (2,928) | (2,814) |
NWC Investment | (0) | 16 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
(+) D&A | 1,562 | 4,628 | 4,622 | 4,555 | 4,413 | 4,321 |
Free Cash Flow | 975 | 3,169 | 3,229 | 3,458 | 3,635 | 3,763 |
% Growth | 225% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 4% |