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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.7x - 18.5x | 17.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.5x - 11.6x | 11.0x |
| Fair Value | €14.10 - €17.93 | €16.01 |
| Upside | -32.9% - -14.6% | -23.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. | 5301 | TSE:5301 |
| Daicel Corporation | 4202 | TSE:4202 |
| Asahi Kasei Corporation | 3407 | TSE:3407 |
| Kuraray Co., Ltd. | 3405 | TSE:3405 |
| DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | DD | NYSE:DD |
| Resonac Holdings Corporation | SWD | DB:SWD |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 5301 | 4202 | 3407 | 3405 | DD | SWD | ||
| TSE:5301 | TSE:4202 | TSE:3407 | TSE:3405 | NYSE:DD | DB:SWD | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -18.6% | 15.5% | 3.6% | 9.4% | -1.7% | -11.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -7.7% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 5.6% | -0.5% | -8.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -25.0% | -20.0% | 27.8% | -9.7% | 18.3% | 346.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.5% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 2.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.6% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 14.1% | -0.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.5% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 4.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | NA | 15.8% | 4.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.98x | 0.93x | 0.71x | 0.89x | 2.75x | 0.97x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 5.5x | 5.4x | 4.6x | 10.8x | 7.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 14.9x | 9.6x | 10.1x | 9.9x | 17.4x | 21.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 10.1x | 17.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -328.6x | 18.7x | 798.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.7x | 17.6x | 18.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 64,190 | 64,190 | 64,190 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,071,763 | 1,128,171 | 1,184,580 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (687,917) | (687,917) | (687,917) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 383,846 | 440,254 | 496,663 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 180.7 | 180.7 | 180.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2,123.92 | 2,436.05 | 2,748.17 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 170.7 | 170.7 | 170.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.44 | 14.27 | 16.10 | 21.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -40.8% | -32.1% | -23.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 5301 | 4202 | 3407 | 3405 | DD | SWD | |
| Enterprise Value | 342,823 | 541,217 | 2,168,781 | 739,689 | 34,451 | 1,335,856 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 80,459 | 68,824 | 384,007 | 111,256 | 1,762 | 280,306 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 34,733 | 60,568 | 182,168 | 28,485 | 1,071 | 72,548 | |
| (-) Debt | (202,979) | (300,825) | (1,216,601) | (256,757) | (7,580) | (1,015,327) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (33,665) | (15,443) | (55,716) | (16,998) | (434) | (25,444) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 221,371 | 354,341 | 1,462,639 | 605,675 | 29,270 | 647,939 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 213.5 | 265.1 | 1,358.1 | 321.5 | 418.5 | 180.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,037.00 | 1,336.50 | 1,077.00 | 1,884.00 | 69.94 | 3,585.22 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 170.72 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,037.00 | 1,336.50 | 1,077.00 | 1,884.00 | 69.94 | 21.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 170.72 | |