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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.8x - 7.8x | 6.8x |
| Fair Value | €15.03 - €27.20 | €21 |
| Upside | -26.3% - 33.3% | 2.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 1,391,480 | 1,379,000 | 1,423,200 | 1,410,000 | 1,439,450 | 1,491,100 |
| % Growth | 8.0% | -0.9% | 3.2% | -0.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% |
| EBITDA | 164,815 | 154,713 | 216,400 | 217,576 | 246,150 | 259,400 |
| % of Revenue | 11.8% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 154,713 | 216,400 | 217,576 | 246,150 | 259,400 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (101,150) | (104,400) | (96,576) | (91,150) | (89,400) | |
| EBIT | 53,563 | 112,000 | 121,000 | 155,000 | 170,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (9,106) | (19,040) | (20,570) | (26,350) | (28,900) | |
| NOPAT | 55,435 | 44,457 | 92,960 | 100,430 | 128,650 | 141,100 |
| Capital Expenditures | (88,312) | (130,650) | (118,500) | (120,000) | (122,500) | (127,500) |
| NWC Investment | (17,875) | 2,174 | (7,700) | 2,299 | (5,130) | (8,998) |
| (+) D&A | 98,026 | 101,150 | 104,400 | 96,576 | 91,150 | 89,400 |
| Free Cash Flow | 47,274 | 17,131 | 71,160 | 79,306 | 92,170 | 94,002 |
| % Growth | -64% | 315% | 11% | 16% | 2% | |