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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 11.1x - 13.1x | 12.1x |
Fair Value | €20.77 - €24.93 | €22.81 |
Upside | 5.3% - 26.4% | 15.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(SEK in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 122,878 | 120,216 | 125,836 | 132,998 | 137,635 | 142,651 |
% Growth | -2.9% | -2.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
EBITDA | 24,497 | 28,437 | 30,173 | 31,757 | 32,937 | 34,564 |
% of Revenue | 19.9% | 23.7% | 24.0% | 23.9% | 23.9% | 24.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(SEK in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 28,437 | 30,173 | 31,757 | 32,937 | 34,564 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (6,916) | (7,134) | (7,012) | (7,579) | (8,209) | |
EBIT | 21,521 | 23,039 | 24,745 | 25,358 | 26,355 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (5,165) | (5,529) | (5,939) | (6,086) | (6,325) | |
NOPAT | 14,521 | 16,356 | 17,510 | 18,806 | 19,272 | 20,030 |
Capital Expenditures | (3,565) | (4,925) | (5,000) | (5,079) | (6,063) | (6,300) |
NWC Investment | 1,061 | 779 | (1,644) | (2,095) | (1,357) | (1,467) |
(+) D&A | 5,390 | 6,916 | 7,134 | 7,012 | 7,579 | 8,209 |
Free Cash Flow | 17,407 | 19,126 | 18,000 | 18,644 | 19,432 | 20,471 |
% Growth | 10% | -6% | 4% | 4% | 5% |