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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.7x - 6.7x | 5.7x |
Fair Value | €13.66 - €22.05 | €17.77 |
Upside | -20.6% - 28.2% | 3.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 1,071,126 | 1,060,000 | 1,082,750 | 1,114,000 | 1,128,300 | 1,215,900 |
% Growth | -1.0% | -1.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 7.8% |
EBITDA | 92,479 | 84,450 | 94,500 | 102,000 | 108,350 | 112,900 |
% of Revenue | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 84,450 | 94,500 | 102,000 | 108,350 | 112,900 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (24,450) | (36,000) | (35,000) | (40,850) | (43,000) | |
EBIT | 60,000 | 58,500 | 67,000 | 67,500 | 69,900 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (21,000) | (20,475) | (23,450) | (23,625) | (24,465) | |
NOPAT | 35,816 | 39,000 | 38,025 | 43,550 | 43,875 | 45,435 |
Capital Expenditures | (47,687) | (47,700) | (48,500) | (49,500) | (53,750) | (47,500) |
NWC Investment | 3,592 | 3,841 | (7,853) | (10,787) | (4,936) | (30,239) |
(+) D&A | 37,377 | 24,450 | 36,000 | 35,000 | 40,850 | 43,000 |
Free Cash Flow | 29,099 | 19,591 | 17,672 | 18,263 | 26,039 | 10,696 |
% Growth | -33% | -10% | 3% | 43% | -59% |