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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.1x - 5.7x | 5.4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.0x |
Fair Value | €34.39 - €39.36 | €36.87 |
Upside | 3.0% - 17.9% | 10.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Umicore SA | UMI | ENXTBR:UMI |
Syensqo SA/NV | SYENS | ENXTBR:SYENS |
Symrise AG | SY1 | DB:SY1 |
K+S Aktiengesellschaft | SDF | DB:SDF |
Novonesis A/S | NZM2 | DB:NZM2 |
Solvay SA | SOL | DB:SOL |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
UMI | SYENS | SY1 | SDF | NZM2 | SOL | ||
ENXTBR:UMI | ENXTBR:SYENS | DB:SY1 | DB:SDF | DB:NZM2 | DB:SOL | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 6.7% | -0.5% | 12.0% | -15.2% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 1.6% | 9.1% | -17.4% | 16.7% | -22.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -106.1% | -21.0% | 22.2% | -44.0% | 43.0% | -39.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 3.8% | 21.1% | 19.0% | 20.3% | 31.5% | 24.8% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.7% | 22.6% | 16.8% | 19.5% | 31.5% | 25.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | -0.4% | 18.5% | 19.4% | 11.6% | 28.2% | 17.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -0.4% | 18.5% | 19.4% | 11.6% | 28.2% | 17.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 1.13x | 2.90x | 0.60x | 6.97x | 0.94x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | -50.7x | 6.1x | 14.9x | 5.2x | 24.7x | 5.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -10.5x | 10.8x | 20.5x | -50.7x | 31.7x | 8.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -50.7x | 6.1x | 24.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 5.7x | 7.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 5.4x | 5.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 919 | 919 | 919 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,705 | 4,953 | 5,200 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,340) | (1,340) | (1,340) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 3,365 | 3,613 | 3,860 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 104.3 | 104.3 | 104.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 32.25 | 34.63 | 37.00 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 32.25 | 34.63 | 37.00 | 33.39 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -3.4% | 3.7% | 10.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | UMI | SYENS | SY1 | SDF | NZM2 | SOL | |
Enterprise Value | 3,238 | 7,729 | 14,539 | 2,195 | 26,529 | 4,824 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,013 | 740 | 709 | 524 | 280 | 555 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 611 | 337 | 617 | 271 | 24 | 308 | |
(-) Debt | (3,437) | (2,115) | (2,546) | (746) | (1,797) | (2,138) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 16 | (50) | (38) | (4) | 0 | (65) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,441 | 6,641 | 13,281 | 2,241 | 25,036 | 3,484 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 240.5 | 103.5 | 139.8 | 179.1 | 466.4 | 104.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 10.15 | 64.17 | 95.02 | 12.51 | 53.68 | 33.39 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.15 | 64.17 | 95.02 | 12.51 | 53.68 | 33.39 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |