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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 7.2x | 6.2x |
Fair Value | €4.69 - €13.49 | €9 |
Upside | -75.6% - -29.7% | -53.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
Revenue | 10,132 | 10,263 | 10,896 | 11,666 | 12,867 | 12,538 |
% Growth | -3.1% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.3% | -2.6% |
EBITDA | 2,850 | 3,324 | 4,051 | 4,487 | 5,016 | 5,360 |
% of Revenue | 28.1% | 32.4% | 37.2% | 38.5% | 39.0% | 42.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(GBP in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
EBITDA | 3,324 | 4,051 | 4,487 | 5,016 | 5,360 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,010) | (1,120) | (1,241) | (1,454) | (1,550) | |
EBIT | 2,314 | 2,931 | 3,246 | 3,562 | 3,810 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (509) | (645) | (714) | (784) | (838) | |
NOPAT | 1,755 | 1,805 | 2,286 | 2,532 | 2,778 | 2,971 |
Capital Expenditures | (2,689) | (3,563) | (5,065) | (5,413) | (5,629) | (6,880) |
NWC Investment | 25 | (10) | (48) | (59) | (92) | 25 |
(+) D&A | 600 | 1,010 | 1,120 | 1,241 | 1,454 | 1,550 |
Free Cash Flow | (310) | (758) | (1,708) | (1,699) | (1,488) | (2,334) |
% Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |