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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
Fair Value | €6.71 - €8.11 | €7.41 |
Upside | 52.4% - 84.3% | 68.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
AECI Ltd | AFE | JSE:AFE |
Solvay SA | SVYS.F | OTCPK:SVYS.F |
African Rainbow Minerals Limited | ARI | JSE:ARI |
Westlake Corporation | WLK | NYSE:WLK |
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | L1YB34 | BOVESPA:L1YB34 |
Sasol Limited | SAOA | DB:SAOA |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
AFE | SVYS.F | ARI | WLK | L1YB34 | SAOA | |||
JSE:AFE | OTCPK:SVYS.F | JSE:ARI | NYSE:WLK | BOVESPA:L1YB34 | DB:SAOA | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 6.3% | -14.5% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 6.2% | ||
3Y CAGR | 8.8% | -23.4% | -16.6% | 1.0% | -4.4% | 10.9% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -3.8% | -8.9% | -3.6% | -1.3% | 1.3% | -5.5% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 6.2% | 8.7% | 31.6% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 14.6% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 7.0% | 13.6% | 32.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 18.5% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 4.6% | 11.2% | -1.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 16.2% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 4.6% | 10.9% | -7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 15.2% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.39x | 0.90x | 2.94x | 1.09x | 0.69x | 0.56x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 8.3x | -41.6x | 18.3x | 12.3x | 3.7x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.31x | 0.61x | 3.13x | 0.89x | 0.51x | 0.23x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.39x | 0.90x | 2.94x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.64x | 1.11x | 1.27x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 0.71x | 0.75x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 260,928 | 260,928 | 260,928 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 177,182 | 186,507 | 195,832 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (87,257) | (87,257) | (87,257) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 89,925 | 99,250 | 108,575 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 636.2 | 636.2 | 636.2 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 141.35 | 156.01 | 170.66 | |||||
FX Rate: ZAR/EUR | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.80 | 7.50 | 8.21 | 4.40 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 54.5% | 70.6% | 86.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AFE | SVYS.F | ARI | WLK | L1YB34 | SAOA | |
Enterprise Value | 13,267 | 4,570 | (151) | 12,892 | 27,858 | 145,447 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,028 | 467 | 8,444 | 2,480 | 1,895 | 36,716 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 329 | 311 | 33,770 | 1,075 | 4,114 | 14,586 | |
(-) Debt | (6,140) | (2,220) | (2,134) | (5,455) | (12,814) | (134,183) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (163) | (66) | (4,134) | (511) | (126) | (4,376) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 10,315 | 3,062 | 35,795 | 10,481 | 20,927 | 58,190 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 105.5 | 104.5 | 196.1 | 128.2 | 649.0 | 636.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 97.76 | 29.31 | 182.58 | 81.73 | 32.25 | 91.47 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 20.79 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 97.76 | 34.00 | 182.58 | 81.73 | 179.25 | 4.40 | |
Trading Currency | ZAR | USD | ZAR | USD | BRL | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 20.79 |