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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.4x - 3.7x | 3.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.7x - 4.0x | 3.8x |
| Fair Value | €6.81 - €8.22 | €7.52 |
| Upside | 64.5% - 98.6% | 81.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| AECI Ltd | AFE | JSE:AFE |
| African Rainbow Minerals Limited | ARI | JSE:ARI |
| Solvay SA | SVYS.F | OTCPK:SVYS.F |
| LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | L1YB34 | BOVESPA:L1YB34 |
| Westlake Corporation | WLK | NYSE:WLK |
| Sasol Limited | SAOA | DB:SAOA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AFE | ARI | SVYS.F | L1YB34 | WLK | SAOA | ||
| JSE:AFE | JSE:ARI | OTCPK:SVYS.F | BOVESPA:L1YB34 | NYSE:WLK | DB:SAOA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.4% | -5.3% | -17.0% | -5.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.7% | -55.8% | -25.0% | -21.7% | -18.7% | 10.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.1% | -85.7% | -34.2% | -39.6% | -31.9% | -9.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.6% | 37.4% | 24.5% | 13.2% | 20.9% | 21.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.5% | 38.0% | 25.7% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 23.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.5% | 9.0% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 21.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.5% | 2.8% | 14.6% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 20.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 0.07x | 0.93x | 0.61x | 1.10x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 2.5x | 6.4x | 8.3x | 10.0x | 2.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | -1.0x | 9.5x | 15.3x | 41.7x | 3.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.5x | 6.4x | 10.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 5.9x | 5.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 3.5x | 3.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 52,541 | 52,541 | 52,541 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 176,063 | 185,329 | 194,596 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (87,257) | (87,257) | (87,257) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 88,806 | 98,072 | 107,339 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 636.2 | 636.2 | 636.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 139.59 | 154.15 | 168.72 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/EUR | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.76 | 7.46 | 8.17 | 4.14 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 63.2% | 80.2% | 97.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AFE | ARI | SVYS.F | L1YB34 | WLK | SAOA | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,608 | 781 | 4,709 | 22,959 | 12,913 | 141,681 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,888 | 8,444 | 345 | 1,718 | 2,277 | 36,716 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 365 | 33,770 | 287 | 4,080 | 1,074 | 14,586 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,205) | (2,134) | (2,227) | (13,360) | (5,620) | (134,183) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (122) | (4,134) | (63) | (126) | (513) | (4,376) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 11,528 | 36,727 | 3,051 | 15,271 | 10,131 | 54,424 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 105.5 | 196.1 | 104.5 | 622.8 | 128.2 | 636.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 109.25 | 187.33 | 29.20 | 24.52 | 79.00 | 85.55 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 20.66 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 109.25 | 187.33 | 34.00 | 133.25 | 79.00 | 4.14 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ZAR | USD | BRL | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 20.66 | |