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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 12.8% - 11.8% | 12.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 1.0x |
Fair Value | €3.06 - €4.59 | €3.80 |
Upside | -30.1% - 4.7% | -13.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 |
Revenue | 275,111 | 248,138 | 249,516 | 263,805 | 281,953 | 291,821 | 297,658 | 303,611 | 309,683 | 315,877 | 322,194 |
% Growth | -5.0% | -9.8% | 0.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 57,879 | 45,342 | 48,531 | 51,401 | 40,186 | 41,593 | 42,424 | 43,273 | 44,138 | 45,021 | 45,921 |
% of Revenue | 21.0% | 18.3% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | ||
EBITDA | 45,342 | 48,531 | 51,401 | 40,186 | 41,593 | 42,424 | 43,273 | 44,138 | 45,021 | 45,921 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (13,759) | (13,261) | (11,416) | (8,634) | (8,936) | (9,115) | (9,297) | (9,483) | (9,673) | (9,866) | |
EBIT | 31,583 | 35,271 | 39,985 | 31,552 | 32,657 | 33,310 | 33,976 | 34,655 | 35,348 | 36,055 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (6,632) | (7,407) | (8,397) | (6,626) | (6,858) | (6,995) | (7,135) | (7,278) | (7,423) | (7,572) | |
NOPAT | 35,285 | 24,950 | 27,864 | 31,589 | 24,926 | 25,799 | 26,315 | 26,841 | 27,378 | 27,925 | 28,484 |
Capital Expenditures | (30,074) | (28,707) | (25,491) | (28,887) | (37,346) | (38,653) | (34,962) | (35,661) | (36,375) | (35,666) | (35,901) |
NWC Investment | 1,748 | 3,234 | (165) | (1,713) | (2,176) | (1,183) | (700) | (714) | (728) | (743) | (757) |
(+) D&A | 13,214 | 13,759 | 13,261 | 11,416 | 8,634 | 8,936 | 9,115 | 9,297 | 9,483 | 9,673 | 9,866 |
Free Cash Flow | 20,174 | 13,236 | 15,468 | 12,404 | (5,962) | (5,102) | (232) | (237) | (242) | 1,189 | 1,692 |
% Growth | 17% | -20% | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | 42% |