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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.5x | 1.4x |
Fair Value | €8.26 - €8.88 | €8.57 |
Upside | -9.2% - -2.4% | -5.8% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | BSM | NYSE:BSM |
EQT Corporation | EQT | NYSE:EQT |
VAALCO Energy, Inc. | EGY | NYSE:EGY |
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | REPX | NYSEAM:REPX |
Epsilon Energy Ltd. | EPSN | NasdaqGM:EPSN |
SandRidge Energy, Inc. | SA2D | DB:SA2D |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
BSM | EQT | EGY | REPX | EPSN | SA2D | |||
NYSE:BSM | NYSE:EQT | NYSE:EGY | NYSEAM:REPX | NasdaqGM:EPSN | DB:SA2D | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | -1.6% | 5.8% | 41.5% | 33.1% | 3.4% | -14.0% | ||
3Y CAGR | -4.6% | -9.7% | 34.0% | 21.4% | -9.4% | -9.5% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -15.7% | 60.3% | -2.7% | -4.9% | 45.9% | 13.9% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 55.9% | 7.8% | 29.0% | 40.8% | 33.2% | 40.4% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 86.7% | 50.4% | 34.9% | 47.4% | 32.5% | 43.5% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 64.0% | 6.8% | 28.3% | 37.9% | 9.6% | 26.9% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 67.7% | 29.2% | 26.9% | 41.0% | 22.2% | 34.3% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 7.24x | 5.74x | 1.00x | 2.09x | 2.61x | 2.02x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 19.7x | 3.7x | 5.1x | 11.7x | 5.9x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 6.28x | 4.64x | 0.82x | 1.50x | 2.82x | 2.71x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.00x | 2.61x | 7.24x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.77x | 1.62x | 2.85x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.85x | 1.94x | 2.04x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 146 | 146 | 146 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 270 | 284 | 298 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 101 | 101 | 101 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 371 | 385 | 399 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.7 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 10.11 | 10.50 | 10.88 | |||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.64 | 8.97 | 9.30 | 9.10 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | -5.1% | -1.4% | 2.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | BSM | EQT | EGY | REPX | EPSN | SA2D | |
Enterprise Value | 2,996 | 40,792 | 470 | 822 | 115 | 289 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3 | 555 | 68 | 14 | 10 | 103 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 3,623 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (99) | (8,315) | (152) | (275) | (0) | (2) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (3,675) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | (300) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,599 | 32,981 | 386 | 590 | 124 | 391 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 211.6 | 624.1 | 104.3 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 36.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 12.28 | 52.85 | 3.70 | 26.75 | 5.63 | 10.65 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.28 | 52.85 | 3.70 | 26.75 | 5.63 | 9.10 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 |