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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 8.4x | 8.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 7.7x | 7.3x |
| Fair Value | €24.86 - €27.72 | €26.29 |
| Upside | 5.4% - 17.6% | 11.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Stora Enso Oyj | STEAV | HLSE:STEAV |
| Mondi plc | KYC0 | DB:KYC0 |
| Iberpapel Gestión, S.A. | IBG | BME:IBG |
| The Navigator Company, S.A. | NVG | ENXTLS:NVG |
| Sappi Limited | SPI | DB:SPI |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj | RPL | DB:RPL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| STEAV | KYC0 | IBG | NVG | SPI | RPL | ||
| HLSE:STEAV | DB:KYC0 | BME:IBG | ENXTLS:NVG | DB:SPI | DB:RPL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -10.4% | -9.6% | -1.3% | 8.2% | -3.6% | 3.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -22.4% | -5.7% | 24.3% | 15.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 132.0% | 3.7% | -51.1% | 2.8% | 60.7% | 27.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 24.1% | 10.8% | 16.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.3% | 12.6% | 21.9% | 25.1% | 14.4% | 13.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.4% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 25.3% | 9.9% | 20.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 24.4% | 13.3% | 18.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.05x | 1.11x | 0.48x | 1.48x | 0.48x | 1.34x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.4x | 8.6x | 4.3x | 6.0x | 3.6x | 7.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 27.0x | 15.1x | 8.2x | 8.8x | 5.6x | 15.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 6.0x | 12.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 10.4x | 12.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 8.0x | 8.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,903 | 1,903 | 1,903 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,408 | 15,166 | 15,924 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,240) | (1,240) | (1,240) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,168 | 13,926 | 14,684 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 527.3 | 527.3 | 527.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 24.97 | 26.41 | 27.85 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 24.97 | 26.41 | 27.85 | 23.58 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 5.9% | 12.0% | 18.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | STEAV | KYC0 | IBG | NVG | SPI | RPL | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,113 | 8,364 | 117 | 3,101 | 2,600 | 13,674 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,659 | 278 | 124 | 194 | 156 | 772 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,607 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2,238 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,737) | (2,015) | (17) | (965) | (1,826) | (3,860) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 150 | (493) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (390) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,792 | 6,168 | 223 | 2,330 | 948 | 12,434 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 788.6 | 440.5 | 10.9 | 711.2 | 604.6 | 527.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.88 | 14.00 | 20.50 | 3.28 | 1.57 | 23.58 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.88 | 14.00 | 20.50 | 3.28 | 1.34 | 23.58 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |