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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 25.2x - 27.8x | 26.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 14.0x - 15.4x | 14.7x |
Fair Value | €1,013 - €1,121 | €1,067 |
Upside | -42.8% - -36.6% | -39.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Hensoldt AG | HAG | XTRA:HAG |
Thales S.A. | CSF | DB:CSF |
MTU Aero Engines AG | MTX | XTRA:MTX |
Dassault Aviation société anonyme | DAU0 | DB:DAU0 |
Safran SA | SEJ1 | XTRA:SEJ1 |
Rheinmetall AG | RHM | DB:RHM |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
HAG | CSF | MTX | DAU0 | SEJ1 | RHM | ||
XTRA:HAG | DB:CSF | XTRA:MTX | DB:DAU0 | XTRA:SEJ1 | DB:RHM | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 9.8% | 4.2% | 8.0% | -6.2% | 1.1% | 19.6% | |
3Y CAGR | 8.6% | 9.5% | 29.4% | -0.5% | 27.5% | 29.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 25.6% | 12.8% | 1982.4% | 32.6% | 20.6% | 57.4% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 18.1% | 14.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 11.7% | 12.9% | -1.6% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 15.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 11.8% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 18.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 11.5% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 17.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 5.15x | 2.52x | 2.69x | 1.89x | 3.96x | 7.72x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 44.8x | 19.2x | 17.2x | 17.7x | 20.7x | 44.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 68.2x | 29.3x | 23.1x | 22.7x | 27.2x | 54.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.2x | 19.2x | 44.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 11.0x | 20.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.2x | 26.5x | 27.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,838 | 1,838 | 1,838 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 46,271 | 48,707 | 51,142 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (755) | (755) | (755) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 45,516 | 47,952 | 50,387 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 999.52 | 1,053.00 | 1,106.48 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 999.52 | 1,053.00 | 1,106.48 | 1,769.50 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -43.5% | -40.5% | -37.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | HAG | CSF | MTX | DAU0 | SEJ1 | RHM | |
Enterprise Value | 11,837 | 51,817 | 21,166 | 11,992 | 109,904 | 81,335 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 591 | 4,768 | 1,840 | 8,485 | 6,519 | 1,083 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 30 | 1,809 | 0 | 3,039 | 2,692 | 328 | |
(-) Debt | (1,519) | (7,823) | (2,838) | (238) | (5,078) | (1,704) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (13) | (43) | 0 | 0 | (549) | (462) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 10,926 | 50,528 | 20,168 | 23,279 | 113,488 | 80,580 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 115.5 | 205.3 | 53.8 | 78.2 | 416.8 | 45.5 | |
Implied Stock Price | 94.60 | 246.10 | 374.70 | 297.60 | 272.30 | 1,769.50 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 94.60 | 246.10 | 374.70 | 297.60 | 272.30 | 1,769.50 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |