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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.0% - 11.0% | 11.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 6.4x | 5.4x |
| Fair Value | €1.02 - €1.57 | €1.29 |
| Upside | 9.9% - 68.5% | 38.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 34,217 | 36,106 | 38,036 | 38,971 | 39,750 | 40,545 |
| % Growth | 1.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 7,448 | 8,907 | 9,476 | 9,842 | 10,039 | 10,240 |
| % of Revenue | 21.8% | 24.7% | 24.9% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 8,907 | 9,476 | 9,842 | 10,039 | 10,240 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (4,352) | (4,295) | (4,130) | (4,212) | (4,297) | |
| EBIT | 4,555 | 5,181 | 5,712 | 5,826 | 5,943 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,093) | (1,243) | (1,371) | (1,398) | (1,426) | |
| NOPAT | 3,033 | 3,462 | 3,938 | 4,341 | 4,428 | 4,517 |
| Capital Expenditures | (4,535) | (3,903) | (3,049) | (4,214) | (4,298) | (4,384) |
| NWC Investment | 51 | 208 | 213 | 103 | 86 | 88 |
| (+) D&A | 3,457 | 4,352 | 4,295 | 4,130 | 4,212 | 4,297 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,006 | 4,119 | 5,397 | 4,360 | 4,428 | 4,517 |
| % Growth | 105% | 31% | -19% | 2% | 2% | |