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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.6x - 7.3x | 7.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.5x - 3.9x | 3.7x |
| Fair Value | €11.12 - €13.48 | €12.30 |
| Upside | -32.2% - -17.9% | -25.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| DEUTZ Aktiengesellschaft | 1DEZ | BIT:1DEZ |
| Traton SE | 18TRA | BIT:18TRA |
| Daimler Truck Holding AG | 1DTRH | BIT:1DTRH |
| Oshkosh Corporation | OK3 | DB:OK3 |
| AB Volvo (publ) | 1VOLVB | BIT:1VOLVB |
| Iveco Group N.V. | R3D | DB:R3D |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1DEZ | 18TRA | 1DTRH | OK3 | 1VOLVB | R3D | ||
| BIT:1DEZ | BIT:18TRA | BIT:1DTRH | DB:OK3 | BIT:1VOLVB | DB:R3D | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -6.3% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 7.1% | 22.7% | 23.8% | 28.9% | 16.9% | 19.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -59.5% | -3.9% | -14.8% | 2.8% | -20.0% | -38.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.7% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 5.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 15.7% | 7.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.5% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 7.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.9% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 5.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 0.74x | 0.95x | 0.88x | 1.31x | 0.50x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.9x | 5.5x | 9.5x | 7.8x | 9.6x | 8.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 222.9x | 8.4x | 11.3x | 9.4x | 10.8x | 12.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 9.5x | 16.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.2x | 4.8x | 4.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 7.0x | 7.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 847 | 847 | 847 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,612 | 5,907 | 6,202 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,997) | (2,997) | (2,997) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,615 | 2,910 | 3,205 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 266.3 | 266.3 | 266.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.82 | 10.93 | 12.03 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.82 | 10.93 | 12.03 | 16.42 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -40.2% | -33.4% | -26.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1DEZ | 18TRA | 1DTRH | OK3 | 1VOLVB | R3D | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,200 | 34,108 | 55,328 | 9,150 | 686,578 | 7,369 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 86 | 2,343 | 10,430 | 210 | 90,903 | 2,640 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 45 | 1,891 | 945 | 0 | 22,864 | 70 | |
| (-) Debt | (296) | (24,276) | (30,331) | (1,478) | (254,386) | (5,639) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (6) | (591) | 0 | (3,117) | (68) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,034 | 14,060 | 35,781 | 7,883 | 542,842 | 4,372 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 138.8 | 500.0 | 892.5 | 64.4 | 2,033.5 | 266.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.46 | 28.12 | 40.09 | 122.45 | 266.96 | 16.42 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 11.26 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.46 | 28.12 | 40.09 | 104.00 | 23.70 | 16.42 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 11.26 | 1.00 | |