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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 2.0x - 4.0x | 3.0x |
Fair Value | €0.073 - €0.087 | €0.080 |
Upside | 53.0% - 82.1% | 67.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 322 | 363 | 390 | 403 | 411 | 420 |
% Growth | 22.7% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 114 | 143 | 158 | 164 | 167 | 170 |
% of Revenue | 35.2% | 39.5% | 40.5% | 40.5% | 40.5% | 40.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 143 | 158 | 164 | 167 | 170 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (26) | (28) | (29) | (29) | (30) | |
EBIT | 117 | 130 | 135 | 137 | 140 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (14) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (17) | |
NOPAT | 85 | 103 | 115 | 119 | 121 | 123 |
Capital Expenditures | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
NWC Investment | 21 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
(+) D&A | 17 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 30 |
Free Cash Flow | 120 | 141 | 149 | 149 | 150 | 153 |
% Growth | 17% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 2% |