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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 15.6x - 17.6x | 16.6x |
| Fair Value | €8.74 - €10.15 | €9.42 |
| Upside | 1.6% - 18.0% | 9.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 162,230 | 165,353 | 173,334 | 180,260 | 186,890 | 193,786 | 197,662 | 201,615 | 205,647 | 209,760 | 213,955 |
| % Growth | 6.1% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 107,449 | 106,846 | 110,473 | 117,003 | 117,307 | 121,420 | 123,848 | 126,325 | 128,852 | 131,429 | 134,057 |
| % of Revenue | 66.2% | 64.6% | 63.7% | 64.9% | 62.8% | 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 106,846 | 110,473 | 117,003 | 117,307 | 121,420 | 123,848 | 126,325 | 128,852 | 131,429 | 134,057 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (19,987) | (20,438) | (22,658) | (19,694) | (20,433) | (20,842) | (21,258) | (21,684) | (22,117) | (22,560) | |
| EBIT | 86,859 | 90,034 | 94,345 | 97,613 | 100,987 | 103,007 | 105,067 | 107,168 | 109,312 | 111,498 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (26,058) | (27,010) | (28,304) | (29,284) | (30,296) | (30,902) | (31,520) | (32,150) | (32,793) | (33,449) | |
| NOPAT | 62,362 | 60,801 | 63,024 | 66,042 | 68,329 | 70,691 | 72,105 | 73,547 | 75,018 | 76,518 | 78,048 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,716) | (16,775) | (17,388) | (18,026) | (18,689) | (19,379) | (18,698) | (18,922) | (19,000) | (18,873) | (18,932) |
| NWC Investment | (7,565) | (2,524) | (6,451) | (5,598) | (5,359) | (5,574) | (3,133) | (3,195) | (3,259) | (3,324) | (3,391) |
| (+) D&A | 18,361 | 19,987 | 20,438 | 22,658 | 19,694 | 20,433 | 20,842 | 21,258 | 21,684 | 22,117 | 22,560 |
| Free Cash Flow | 71,442 | 61,490 | 59,623 | 65,076 | 63,975 | 66,171 | 71,116 | 72,688 | 74,443 | 76,438 | 78,286 |
| % Growth | -14% | -3% | 9% | -2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |