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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.0% - 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Fair Value | €11.14 - €29.52 | €16.26 |
| Upside | -48.9% - 35.4% | -25.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| Revenue | 2,069,019 | 2,000,000 | 2,001,000 | 2,039,500 | 1,979,850 | 1,987,850 | 1,987,850 | 1,987,850 | 1,987,850 | 1,987,850 | 1,987,850 | |
| % Growth | -0.7% | -3.3% | 0.0% | 1.9% | -2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 294,610 | 291,000 | 286,500 | 306,200 | 323,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | |
| % of Revenue | 14.2% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 291,000 | 286,500 | 306,200 | 323,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | 324,600 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (137,000) | (141,500) | (159,200) | (168,150) | (166,200) | (166,200) | (166,200) | (166,200) | (166,200) | (166,200) | (228,000) | |
| EBIT | 154,000 | 145,000 | 147,000 | 155,450 | 158,400 | 158,400 | 158,400 | 158,400 | 158,400 | 158,400 | 96,600 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (43,120) | (40,600) | (41,160) | (43,526) | (44,352) | (44,352) | (44,352) | (44,352) | (44,352) | (44,352) | (27,048) | |
| NOPAT | 115,727 | 110,880 | 104,400 | 105,840 | 111,924 | 114,048 | 114,048 | 114,048 | 114,048 | 114,048 | 114,048 | 69,552 |
| Capital Expenditures | (210,850) | (243,000) | (263,000) | (257,500) | (240,000) | (240,000) | (240,000) | (240,000) | (240,000) | (240,000) | (240,000) | (240,000) |
| NWC Investment | 1,781 | 8,763 | (127) | (4,888) | 7,573 | (1,016) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (13,881) |
| (+) D&A | 133,878 | 137,000 | 141,500 | 159,200 | 168,150 | 166,200 | 166,200 | 166,200 | 166,200 | 166,200 | 166,200 | 228,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 40,536 | 13,643 | (17,227) | 2,652 | 47,647 | 39,232 | 40,248 | 40,248 | 40,248 | 40,248 | 40,248 | 43,671 |
| % Growth | -66% | NM | NM | 1697% | -18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% | |