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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.8% - 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Fair Value | €54.97 - €70.72 | €61.53 |
| Upside | -30.8% - -11.0% | -22.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| Revenue | 1,164,922 | 2,232,200 | 2,538,062 | 2,562,388 | 2,664,850 | 2,550,000 | |
| % Growth | -30.3% | 91.6% | 13.7% | 1.0% | 4.0% | -4.3% | |
| EBITDA | 297,915 | 416,428 | 657,850 | 698,000 | 835,000 | 911,000 | |
| % of Revenue | 25.6% | 18.7% | 25.9% | 27.2% | 31.3% | 35.7% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 416,428 | 657,850 | 698,000 | 835,000 | 911,000 | 911,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 95,476 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (17,276) | (65,350) | (65,976) | (98,250) | (59,500) | (18,050) | |
| EBIT | 399,152 | 592,500 | 727,500 | 736,750 | 851,500 | 892,950 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (111,763) | (165,900) | (203,700) | (206,290) | (238,420) | (250,026) | |
| NOPAT | 203,439 | 287,390 | 426,600 | 523,800 | 530,460 | 613,080 | 642,924 |
| Capital Expenditures | (19,008) | (20,504) | (23,008) | (24,220) | (19,750) | (19,000) | (19,000) |
| NWC Investment | 25,337 | (53,342) | (15,287) | (1,216) | (5,121) | 5,740 | (1,593) |
| (+) D&A | 15,361 | 17,276 | 65,350 | 65,976 | 98,250 | 59,500 | 18,050 |
| Free Cash Flow | 225,129 | 230,819 | 453,655 | 564,341 | 603,839 | 659,320 | 640,381 |
| % Growth | 3% | 97% | 24% | 7% | 9% | -3% | |
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