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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 3.0x - 5.0x | 4.0x |
Fair Value | €23.63 - €30.31 | €26.90 |
Upside | 5.5% - 35.3% | 20.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
Revenue | 138,182 | 141,800 | 146,600 | 151,800 | 154,836 | 157,933 |
% Growth | 0.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 15,339 | 16,950 | 18,650 | 20,450 | 20,859 | 21,276 |
% of Revenue | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
EBITDA | 16,950 | 18,650 | 20,450 | 20,859 | 21,276 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (6,000) | (6,700) | (7,300) | (7,446) | (7,595) | |
EBIT | 10,950 | 11,950 | 13,150 | 13,413 | 13,681 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (2,628) | (2,868) | (3,156) | (3,219) | (3,284) | |
NOPAT | 7,763 | 8,322 | 9,082 | 9,994 | 10,194 | 10,398 |
Capital Expenditures | (6,810) | (15,000) | (10,000) | (10,000) | (11,667) | (11,900) |
NWC Investment | (88) | (1,180) | (1,566) | (1,696) | (990) | (1,010) |
(+) D&A | 5,125 | 6,000 | 6,700 | 7,300 | 7,446 | 7,595 |
Free Cash Flow | 5,990 | (1,858) | 4,216 | 5,598 | 4,983 | 5,083 |
% Growth | NM | NM | 33% | -11% | 2% |