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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.5% - 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Fair Value | €70.96 - €86.57 | €77.68 |
| Upside | 24.7% - 52.1% | 36.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 660,257 | 731,242 | 793,530 | 864,478 | 977,154 | 1,083,522 | 1,164,786 | 1,205,554 | 1,229,665 | 1,254,258 | 1,279,343 | |
| % Growth | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 230,092 | 310,286 | 348,970 | 392,087 | 454,718 | 468,110 | 509,042 | 526,859 | 537,396 | 548,144 | 559,107 | |
| % of Revenue | 34.8% | 42.4% | 44.0% | 45.4% | 46.5% | 43.2% | 43.7% | 43.7% | 43.7% | 43.7% | 43.7% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 310,286 | 348,970 | 392,087 | 454,718 | 468,110 | 509,042 | 526,859 | 537,396 | 548,144 | 559,107 | 559,107 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (69,103) | (74,335) | (85,931) | (100,609) | (112,699) | (121,151) | (125,392) | (127,900) | (130,458) | (133,067) | (95,374) | |
| EBIT | 241,183 | 274,635 | 306,156 | 354,109 | 355,411 | 387,891 | 401,467 | 409,496 | 417,686 | 426,040 | 463,732 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (36,177) | (41,195) | (45,923) | (53,116) | (53,312) | (58,184) | (60,220) | (61,424) | (62,653) | (63,906) | (69,560) | |
| NOPAT | 176,766 | 205,005 | 233,440 | 260,232 | 300,993 | 302,099 | 329,707 | 341,247 | 348,072 | 355,033 | 362,134 | 394,173 |
| Capital Expenditures | (62,927) | (97,500) | (99,000) | (101,131) | (97,060) | (102,511) | (100,234) | (99,935) | (100,893) | (100,354) | (100,394) | (100,394) |
| NWC Investment | 14,275 | 19,775 | 17,353 | 19,765 | 31,390 | 29,632 | 22,639 | 11,357 | 6,717 | 6,851 | 6,988 | 3,564 |
| (+) D&A | 22,132 | 69,103 | 74,335 | 85,931 | 100,609 | 112,699 | 121,151 | 125,392 | 127,900 | 130,458 | 133,067 | 95,374 |
| Free Cash Flow | 150,246 | 196,384 | 226,127 | 264,798 | 335,931 | 341,920 | 373,264 | 378,061 | 381,795 | 391,988 | 401,795 | 392,717 |
| % Growth | 31% | 15% | 17% | 27% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | -2% | |