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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.4x - 10.4x | 9.4x |
| Fair Value | €65.85 - €77.07 | €71.35 |
| Upside | 9.3% - 27.9% | 18.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 660,257 | 721,856 | 782,438 | 851,182 | 932,490 | 1,075,092 |
| % Growth | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 15.3% |
| EBITDA | 231,958 | 306,825 | 346,253 | 394,656 | 435,374 | 466,003 |
| % of Revenue | 35.1% | 42.5% | 44.3% | 46.4% | 46.7% | 43.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 306,825 | 346,253 | 394,656 | 435,374 | 466,003 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70,512 | |
| D&A | (69,089) | (78,632) | (92,414) | (38,462) | (44,344) | |
| EBIT | 237,736 | 267,621 | 302,242 | 396,912 | 492,171 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (35,660) | (40,143) | (45,336) | (59,537) | (73,826) | |
| NOPAT | 176,887 | 202,076 | 227,478 | 256,906 | 337,375 | 418,345 |
| Capital Expenditures | (76,760) | (43,590) | (48,254) | (53,518) | (82,427) | (82,206) |
| NWC Investment | 13,661 | 16,422 | 16,151 | 18,327 | 21,676 | 38,017 |
| (+) D&A | 23,856 | 69,089 | 78,632 | 92,414 | 38,462 | 44,344 |
| Free Cash Flow | 137,644 | 243,997 | 274,007 | 314,129 | 315,087 | 418,500 |
| % Growth | 77% | 12% | 15% | 0% | 33% | |