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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5.5x - 6.0x | 5.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.3x - 11.3x | 10.8x |
| Fair Value | €99.08 - €109.36 | €104.22 |
| Upside | 10.0% - 21.4% | 15.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Vale S.A. | CVLC | DB:CVLC |
| Zijin Mining Group Company Limited | FJZ | DB:FJZ |
| Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. | 4GE | DB:4GE |
| Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry S.A. | HC6A | DB:HC6A |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO1 | XTRA:RIO1 |
| Aurubis AG | NDA | DB:NDA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CVLC | FJZ | 4GE | HC6A | RIO1 | NDA | ||
| DB:CVLC | DB:FJZ | DB:4GE | DB:HC6A | XTRA:RIO1 | DB:NDA | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.0% | 39.6% | 11.9% | 16.9% | -1.1% | 13.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -27.3% | 22.8% | -4.2% | 5.3% | -22.0% | -17.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -17.1% | 56.2% | 28.2% | 123.7% | -5.9% | 841.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 41.3% | 10.9% | 44.0% | 4.7% | 34.6% | 3.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 35.1% | 10.8% | 40.9% | 3.1% | 27.5% | 0.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 28.2% | 15.1% | 42.6% | 5.1% | 26.1% | 2.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.5% | 16.3% | 44.0% | 5.8% | 26.1% | 4.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.40x | 1.97x | 3.17x | 0.48x | 1.92x | 0.21x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 10.1x | 6.1x | 6.4x | 5.4x | 3.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 12.0x | 7.2x | 8.2x | 7.4x | 4.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 7.4x | 12.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.2x | 8.1x | 22.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.5x | 5.7x | 6.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 858 | 858 | 858 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,681 | 4,927 | 5,174 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 60 | 60 | 60 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,741 | 4,987 | 5,234 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 43.7 | 43.7 | 43.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 108.59 | 114.23 | 119.88 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 108.59 | 114.23 | 119.88 | 90.10 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 20.5% | 26.8% | 33.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CVLC | FJZ | 4GE | HC6A | RIO1 | NDA | |
| Enterprise Value | 302,191 | 575,307 | 51,209 | 1,634 | 98,167 | 3,874 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 22,959 | 46,312 | 8,441 | 67 | 8,865 | 490 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 26,560 | 57,785 | 242 | 0 | 5,355 | 150 | |
| (-) Debt | (106,487) | (153,930) | (10,347) | (737) | (14,222) | (579) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,635) | (39,764) | (2,724) | (28) | (2,719) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 238,588 | 485,709 | 46,821 | 936 | 95,446 | 3,934 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,268.8 | 26,473.3 | 7,785.0 | 375.2 | 1,624.9 | 43.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 55.89 | 18.35 | 6.01 | 2.50 | 58.74 | 90.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 6.39 | 8.40 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.75 | 2.18 | 5.14 | 2.50 | 50.18 | 90.10 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 6.39 | 8.40 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |