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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.0x - 11.0x | 10.0x |
Fair Value | €14.45 - €24.49 | €19.29 |
Upside | -51.7% - -18.1% | -35.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
Revenue | 6,371 | 4,684 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 | 4,756 |
% Growth | -5.0% | -26.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 558 | 493 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 |
% of Revenue | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | |
EBITDA | 493 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | 501 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (242) | (245) | (245) | (245) | (245) | (245) | (245) | (245) | (245) | (245) | |
EBIT | 251 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (73) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | |
NOPAT | 265 | 178 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 |
Capital Expenditures | (412) | (300) | (344) | (352) | (352) | (352) | (352) | (352) | (352) | (352) | (352) |
NWC Investment | 14 | 73 | (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 185 | 242 | 245 | 245 | 245 | 245 | 245 | 245 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Free Cash Flow | 52 | 194 | 79 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
% Growth | 272% | -59% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |