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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.7x | 0.6x |
| Fair Value | €401.98 - €446.88 | €424.43 |
| Upside | 11.7% - 24.1% | 17.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| MVV Energie AG | MVV1 | DB:MVV1 |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG | EBK | DB:EBK |
| Gelsenwasser AG | WWG | DB:WWG |
| E.ON SE | EOAN | DB:EOAN |
| REN - Redes Energéticas Nacionais, SGPS, S.A. | RN4 | DB:RN4 |
| Mainova AG | MNV6 | DB:MNV6 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| MVV1 | EBK | WWG | EOAN | RN4 | MNV6 | |||
| DB:MVV1 | DB:EBK | DB:WWG | DB:EOAN | DB:RN4 | DB:MNV6 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 11.1% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 5.5% | 17.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 14.4% | 5.4% | -16.2% | 1.5% | 6.9% | 26.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.0% | -22.0% | -8.7% | -14.0% | 3.5% | -39.6% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 25.7% | 2.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 24.8% | -5.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 10.8% | 20.1% | 2.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 10.8% | 20.1% | -0.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.52x | 0.85x | 0.23x | 0.80x | 4.12x | 0.64x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.0x | 19.2x | 13.9x | 7.4x | 20.4x | -79.8x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.32x | 0.53x | 0.48x | 0.45x | 1.90x | 0.60x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.23x | 0.80x | 4.12x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.87x | 1.12x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 0.75x | 0.79x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 3,994 | 3,994 | 3,994 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,838 | 2,987 | 3,137 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (163) | (163) | (163) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,675 | 2,824 | 2,974 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 401.02 | 423.41 | 445.81 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 401.02 | 423.41 | 445.81 | 360.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 11.4% | 17.6% | 23.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MVV1 | EBK | WWG | EOAN | RN4 | MNV6 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,236 | 29,584 | 853 | 63,814 | 3,994 | 2,564 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 762 | 8,758 | 387 | 7,025 | 40 | 14 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 136 | 8,423 | 532 | 9,996 | 349 | 913 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,819) | (20,758) | 0 | (39,064) | (2,566) | (1,076) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (351) | (7,535) | (1) | (6,325) | 0 | (15) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,964 | 18,472 | 1,770 | 35,446 | 1,817 | 2,401 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 65.9 | 270.9 | 3.4 | 2,613.1 | 663.3 | 6.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 29.80 | 68.20 | 515.00 | 13.57 | 2.74 | 360.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 29.80 | 68.20 | 515.00 | 13.57 | 2.74 | 360.00 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |