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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.6x - 9.5x | 9.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 14.7x - 16.2x | 15.4x |
| Fair Value | €3.69 - €5.34 | €4.51 |
| Upside | -22.5% - 12.2% | -5.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Deufol SE | DE10 | HMSE:DE10 |
| Deutsche Post AG | DHL | XTRA:DHL |
| Österreichische Post AG | O3P | XTRA:O3P |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | 5CI | DB:5CI |
| A.L.A. società per azioni | 8WD | DB:8WD |
| Müller - Die lila Logistik SE | MLL | DB:MLL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DE10 | DHL | O3P | 5CI | 8WD | MLL | ||
| HMSE:DE10 | XTRA:DHL | XTRA:O3P | DB:5CI | DB:8WD | DB:MLL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 16.1% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 8.3% | 25.3% | 9.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 9.9% | -6.8% | 4.4% | 9.1% | 37.9% | 26.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -7.2% | -1.2% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 39.4% | 102.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.7% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 11.0% | 2.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.76x | 0.86x | 0.29x | 1.26x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 8.4x | 9.3x | 9.0x | 10.3x | 9.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 12.0x | 15.9x | 11.6x | 11.9x | 20.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 9.0x | 10.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 18.6x | 232.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 9.0x | 9.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 14 | 14 | 14 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 124 | 130 | 137 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (96) | (96) | (96) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 28 | 35 | 41 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.52 | 4.34 | 5.16 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.52 | 4.34 | 5.16 | 4.76 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -26.1% | -8.9% | 8.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DE10 | DHL | O3P | 5CI | 8WD | MLL | |
| Enterprise Value | 131 | 64,536 | 2,619 | 3,802 | 364 | 133 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 13 | 7,252 | 119 | 174 | 31 | 17 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3 | 1,493 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (95) | (26,554) | (745) | (292) | (81) | (113) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3) | (441) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 49 | 46,286 | 1,993 | 3,710 | 314 | 38 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8.5 | 1,139.5 | 67.6 | 132.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.75 | 40.62 | 29.50 | 28.10 | 34.80 | 4.76 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.75 | 40.62 | 29.50 | 28.10 | 34.80 | 4.76 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |