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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.9x - 18.7x | 17.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 87.6x - 96.9x | 92.2x |
| Fair Value | €2.10 - €3.59 | €2.85 |
| Upside | -54.1% - -21.6% | -37.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Deufol SE | DE10 | HMSE:DE10 |
| Deutsche Post AG | DHL | XTRA:DHL |
| Österreichische Post AG | O3P | XTRA:O3P |
| MaltaPost p.l.c. | MTP | MTSE:MTP |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | 5CI | DB:5CI |
| Müller - Die lila Logistik SE | MLL | DB:MLL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DE10 | DHL | O3P | MTP | 5CI | MLL | ||
| HMSE:DE10 | XTRA:DHL | XTRA:O3P | MTSE:MTP | DB:5CI | DB:MLL | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 42.5% | 13.2% | -1.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 25.3% | -11.1% | 1.7% | 25.9% | 10.6% | 19.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.4% | -4.0% | 6.6% | 41.3% | 2.8% | 1188.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.3% | -0.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.72x | 0.86x | 0.62x | 0.10x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 8.0x | 9.3x | 3.6x | 3.2x | 9.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 11.5x | 16.0x | 4.8x | 4.1x | 20.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 4.1x | 11.0x | 16.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -148.2x | 20.1x | 95.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.9x | 17.8x | 18.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 112 | 118 | 124 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (96) | (96) | (96) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 17 | 23 | 29 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.10 | 2.85 | 3.59 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.10 | 2.85 | 3.59 | 4.58 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -54.1% | -37.8% | -21.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DE10 | DHL | O3P | MTP | 5CI | MLL | |
| Enterprise Value | 131 | 61,618 | 2,670 | 25 | 1,300 | 132 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 13 | 7,252 | 119 | 6 | 2,368 | 17 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3 | 1,493 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (95) | (26,554) | (745) | (3) | (64) | (113) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3) | (441) | 0 | (1) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 49 | 43,368 | 2,043 | 34 | 3,647 | 36 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8.5 | 1,133.2 | 67.6 | 80.3 | 132.0 | 8.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.75 | 38.27 | 30.25 | 0.42 | 27.62 | 4.58 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.75 | 38.27 | 30.25 | 0.42 | 27.62 | 4.58 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |