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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.2x - 8.2x | 7.2x |
Fair Value | €23.57 - €35.04 | €29.20 |
Upside | -3.2% - 44.0% | 20.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 12,188 | 10,436 | 10,737 | 10,676 | 10,710 | 10,744 |
% Growth | -8.5% | -14.4% | 2.9% | -0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
EBITDA | 868 | 912 | 809 | 828 | 777 | 793 |
% of Revenue | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 912 | 809 | 828 | 777 | 793 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (281) | (278) | (307) | (342) | (343) | |
EBIT | 631 | 532 | 521 | 435 | 450 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (158) | (133) | (130) | (109) | (112) | |
NOPAT | 488 | 474 | 399 | 391 | 326 | 337 |
Capital Expenditures | (315) | (499) | (500) | (405) | (400) | (400) |
NWC Investment | 67 | 104 | (18) | 4 | (2) | (2) |
(+) D&A | 218 | 281 | 278 | 307 | 342 | 343 |
Free Cash Flow | 458 | 359 | 158 | 296 | 266 | 279 |
% Growth | -22% | -56% | 87% | -10% | 5% |