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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 13.8% - 12.8% | 13.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.1x - 1.2x | 1.2x |
Fair Value | €4.50 - €7.08 | €5.75 |
Upside | -10.2% - 41.2% | 14.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 1,981 | 2,002 | 2,048 | 2,057 | 2,088 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 |
% Growth | -2.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 185 | 219 | 225 | 216 | 223 | 226 | 226 | 226 | 226 | 226 | 226 |
% of Revenue | 9.3% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 219 | 225 | 216 | 223 | 226 | 226 | 226 | 226 | 226 | 226 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (100) | (84) | (63) | (64) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | |
EBIT | 119 | 141 | 153 | 159 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (33) | (39) | (43) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | |
NOPAT | 32 | 86 | 102 | 110 | 115 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 |
Capital Expenditures | (55) | (40) | (42) | (53) | (71) | (72) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) |
NWC Investment | 7 | (3) | (7) | (1) | (5) | (5) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 141 | 100 | 84 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
Free Cash Flow | 125 | 142 | 136 | 119 | 103 | 104 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 |
% Growth | -4% | -13% | -14% | 1% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |