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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.5% - 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Fair Value | €251.81 - €306.81 | €275.48 |
| Upside | 50.8% - 83.7% | 65.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| Revenue | 533 | 573 | 593 | 605 | 617 | 629 | 642 | 655 | 668 | 681 | 695 | |
| % Growth | 12.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 122 | 135 | 140 | 143 | 146 | 149 | 152 | 155 | 158 | 161 | 164 | |
| % of Revenue | 23.0% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 23.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (EUR in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 135 | 140 | 143 | 146 | 149 | 152 | 155 | 158 | 161 | 164 | 164 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (13) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (25) | |
| EBIT | 122 | 127 | 129 | 132 | 134 | 137 | 140 | 143 | 145 | 148 | 139 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | (36) | (37) | (38) | (38) | (39) | (40) | (37) | |
| NOPAT | 81 | 89 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 98 | 100 | 102 | 104 | 106 | 108 | 101 |
| Capital Expenditures | (32) | (23) | (24) | (26) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) |
| NWC Investment | (12) | (9) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| (+) D&A | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 25 |
| Free Cash Flow | 48 | 71 | 78 | 80 | 81 | 83 | 85 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
| % Growth | 48% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |