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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.9x - 7.9x | 6.9x |
| Fair Value | €5.16 - €6.50 | €5.81 |
| Upside | 24.6% - 57.1% | 40.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 13,817 | 14,212 | 14,980 | 15,499 | 15,796 | 16,189 | 16,513 | 16,843 | 17,180 | 17,524 | 17,874 |
| % Growth | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,356 | 1,346 | 1,677 | 1,740 | 1,738 | 1,762 | 1,797 | 1,833 | 1,870 | 1,907 | 1,945 |
| % of Revenue | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 1,346 | 1,677 | 1,740 | 1,738 | 1,762 | 1,797 | 1,833 | 1,870 | 1,907 | 1,945 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (548) | (599) | (606) | (578) | (594) | (606) | (618) | (630) | (643) | (656) | |
| EBIT | 798 | 1,079 | 1,135 | 1,161 | 1,168 | 1,191 | 1,215 | 1,239 | 1,264 | 1,290 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (207) | (280) | (295) | (302) | (304) | (310) | (316) | (322) | (329) | (335) | |
| NOPAT | 806 | 591 | 798 | 840 | 859 | 864 | 882 | 899 | 917 | 936 | 954 |
| Capital Expenditures | (408) | (625) | (614) | (619) | (607) | (565) | (576) | (583) | (575) | (578) | (578) |
| NWC Investment | 60 | 31 | 59 | 40 | 23 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 |
| (+) D&A | 266 | 548 | 599 | 606 | 578 | 594 | 606 | 618 | 630 | 643 | 656 |
| Free Cash Flow | 724 | 544 | 842 | 866 | 853 | 924 | 936 | 960 | 999 | 1,027 | 1,059 |
| % Growth | -25% | 55% | 3% | -2% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | |